Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 11:16:07 -0700
To: "Zimbabwe Crisis Mailing List":;
From: Zimbabwe Crisis
Subject: ZimCrisis#63 -- ZANU-PF Election Strategy
Cc: "Australian government":;, "British government":;,
"Canadian government":
;, "South African government":;,
"US government":;, Commonwealth:;, "NG organisations":;,
"African press":;, "Foreign press":;
Hi everyone,
I received this report this morning.
Craig
ZANU PF ELECTION STRATEGY
The following is a report resulting from information received from sources within ZANU PF. We have no way of checking the accuracy of this information, which outlines the election strategy of ZANU PF. However, we feel it should be made public as the elections are next week and perhaps forewarning may result in a fairer election or at least in an election which can be shown to be illegitimate.
This story should be seen in the light of the article in the Daily News of 16 June (Survey predicts massive MDC victory in election).
Editor's Background Comments:
The loss of the Referendum vote shocked Mugabe and ZANU PF more than is generally known. The realisation that there could be a change of Government with the consequent accountability for past excesses and abuses galvanised Mugabe into action. Mugabe has made it quite clear that his strategy is to win the June election at all costs.
Plan A
According to our ZANU PF sources, Plan A was:
1. To unleash elements of the Fifth Brigade who then with ZANU PF Youth were to mobilize the unemployed in various areas for intimidation purposes (for a history of the Fifth Brigade's role in Mugabe's previous intimidation's, see MATABELELAND REPORT).
2. To organise the invasion of targeted farms with the purpose of provoking a reaction.
3. To identify leaders of the opposition or people of influence who support opposition parties in order to harass, or, in some cases, to murder them. In particular, whites are to be targeted in order to deter funding and discourage support for the opposition in the commercial farming areas.
4. To exploit the genuine land hunger of the people.
5. To step up intimidation of any group who could possibly support opposition parties. This would include farmers, farm workers, teachers, doctors etc. and extended into the tribal areas.
6. To coerce the Police to comply with the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) / Fifth Brigade.
7. To avoid using the army overtly.
In general, we believe that all the present campaigning and electioneering has been geared to the same end - the intimidation of the voters (black) to vote for ZANU PF.
Use of racial rhetoric and hate speech is merely a smoke screen to obscure the central aim. In fact there cannot be more than 20,000 white votes, perhaps less now, after the voters- roll rigging. This is hardly enough to influence a country of 12 million.
Recently however, it is becoming apparent that terror campaigns were having the reverse effect on potential voters. There is a deepening and growing ground swell of resentment growing against Government perpetrators of the violence. People seem to have had enough. They want change.
With the emergence of the fact that there will be an opposition regardless of what intimidation takes place, the ZANU PF strategy has changed slightly. Hence Plan B:
Plan B
Our sources indicate that ZANU PF will tolerate a limited opposition for the following reasons:
a) The opposition could be allowed a token role in the Government but would be controlled via 'extra legal' means if necessary. A new government, which included Tsvangirai, would have obvious benefits.
b) Tsvangirai would be 'controlled' and the structures of the opposition would be slowly neutralized.
c) The 'Democratic' process would be seen to have taken place.
d) ZANU PF would gain credibility by tolerating an opposition party, and since Mugabe made their inclusion possible, there would no longer be any reason for investment and/or aid to be withheld.
e) Plans to nationalise more farms, mines, businesses and buildings would be put on hold temporarily, only to be brought out in the future as a threat when required. All affected persons would accept the delay in these plans with relief and Mugabe would get the credit for being so reasonable and moderate.
The change from Plan A to Plan B would entail the electoral fixing of a smaller number of constituencies, thereby making it harder to prove any wrongdoing. Our sources have told us that there is a small cell of 12 people preparing duplicate ballot boxes at this point in time. To understand the implication of this, we must look at some numbers.
The newly elected Parliament of Zimbabwe will consist of 150 seats. Of the 150 seats 30 or 20% of the seats are not contested but appointed by the President after the election. Ten of these seats are for Chiefs.
Just take a moment to reflect on this - 20% of the constitutional vote is pre-ordained by an obscure legal process sanctioned by an earlier parliament. The result of apathy and no opposition is certainly coming home to roost.
The courage of the Zimbabwe people should be viewed in this light - that despite the loaded dice, they still want to go ahead and vote.
Of the remaining 120 seats, we are told that between 70 - 80 are safe opposition seats, 20 - 30 are safe ZANU PF seats and the remainder are somewhere in between, with most tending towards the opposition. This means that ZANU PF have to influence the outcome in no more than 20 - 30 seats.
ZANU PF only needs to win 45 seats to prevent an opposition majority.
ZANU PF estimate that this target is attainable with the able assistance of their Fifth Brigade.
The task of the Fifth Brigade - armed with 20,000 AK 47's from Angola - will be to blitz and terrorise certain targeted areas in the 7 days before the election. Their strategy is to use fear to dissuade people from voting at all. New ballot boxes, pre-filled by the team of 12, will be swapped.
How and where and when is this to be done? We don't know yet, and hope to bring to you this information - but if we do not - stay alert to the possibilities of ZANU PF's election strategy.
This begs the obvious question: Which constituencies will be targeted? Our informants have listed the following constituencies as those under consideration as targets suitable for the above plan of last minute intimidation and ballot box substitution or introduction. While not conclusive, this list is a good guide:
1. Chegutu
2. Kadoma West
3. Makonde
4. Marondera East
5. Marondera West
6. Mudzi
7. Murewa South & North
8. Mtoko South & North
9. Wedza
10. Goromonzi
11. Chikomba
12. Bindura
13. Mazoe West & East
14. Shamva
15. Gweru Rural
16. Silobela
17. Gwanda North & South
18. Insiza
19. Beit Bridge
20. Umzingwane
21. Buhera South
A total of 25 areas - we will try and update as the more likely ones as more information comes to light.
Where does this leave us? Tempers are rising and Zimbabwe is very close to total chaos. If the election process is not seen to be fair and Mugabe wins by default and fraud, what ways remain to remove this tyrant? What is the next step?
All Zimbabweans must persevere and vote: an overwhelming desire for change will stop this tyranny.
To the International Observers who carry a heavy responsibility - be vigilant and do not legitimize a morally bankrupt leadership by accepting a flawed electoral process. Taking the easy route now will only lead to greater strife for the people of Zimbabwe in the days ahead.
Craig
Zimbabwe Crisis Mailing List
http://www.niner.net/zimcrisis
This is currently a manually administered mailing list. To subscribe or unsubscribe, send your request to DELETED. Personal requests for removal will be carried out immediately. Requests from governmental, political or press organisations (or their representatives) will be treated less favourably. The purpose of this list is not necessarily to redistribute published news reports. Rather, it is intended to distribute reports from or directly affecting people in Zimbabwe. If you have seen something before, I apologise. Hopefully that will not be a regular occurrence.
Brief list of helpful sites on the issue:
- Zimbabwe Crisis Mailing List Archives -- http://www.niner.net/zimcrisis
- Comprehensive news updates -- http://www.1freespace.com/beetee
- Offers of and requests for help for Zimbabweans -- http://pub9.ezboard.com/boffersofhelp
- Commercial Farmers' Union -- http://www.mweb.co.zw/cfu
- Movement for Democratic Change -- http://www.in2zw.com/mdc
- Zimbabwe Democracy Trust -- http://www.zimbabwedemocracytrust.org
- BSAP Pursuit of Zimbabwean Criminals -- http://www.bsaphq.f9.co.uk
To: "Zimbabwe Crisis Mailing List":;
From: Zimbabwe Crisis
Subject: ZimCrisis#63 -- ZANU-PF Election Strategy
Cc: "Australian government":;, "British government":;,
"Canadian government":
;, "South African government":;,
"US government":;, Commonwealth:;, "NG organisations":;,
"African press":;, "Foreign press":;
Hi everyone,
I received this report this morning.
Craig
ZANU PF ELECTION STRATEGY
The following is a report resulting from information received from sources within ZANU PF. We have no way of checking the accuracy of this information, which outlines the election strategy of ZANU PF. However, we feel it should be made public as the elections are next week and perhaps forewarning may result in a fairer election or at least in an election which can be shown to be illegitimate.
This story should be seen in the light of the article in the Daily News of 16 June (Survey predicts massive MDC victory in election).
Editor's Background Comments:
The loss of the Referendum vote shocked Mugabe and ZANU PF more than is generally known. The realisation that there could be a change of Government with the consequent accountability for past excesses and abuses galvanised Mugabe into action. Mugabe has made it quite clear that his strategy is to win the June election at all costs.
Plan A
According to our ZANU PF sources, Plan A was:
1. To unleash elements of the Fifth Brigade who then with ZANU PF Youth were to mobilize the unemployed in various areas for intimidation purposes (for a history of the Fifth Brigade's role in Mugabe's previous intimidation's, see MATABELELAND REPORT).
2. To organise the invasion of targeted farms with the purpose of provoking a reaction.
3. To identify leaders of the opposition or people of influence who support opposition parties in order to harass, or, in some cases, to murder them. In particular, whites are to be targeted in order to deter funding and discourage support for the opposition in the commercial farming areas.
4. To exploit the genuine land hunger of the people.
5. To step up intimidation of any group who could possibly support opposition parties. This would include farmers, farm workers, teachers, doctors etc. and extended into the tribal areas.
6. To coerce the Police to comply with the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) / Fifth Brigade.
7. To avoid using the army overtly.
In general, we believe that all the present campaigning and electioneering has been geared to the same end - the intimidation of the voters (black) to vote for ZANU PF.
Use of racial rhetoric and hate speech is merely a smoke screen to obscure the central aim. In fact there cannot be more than 20,000 white votes, perhaps less now, after the voters- roll rigging. This is hardly enough to influence a country of 12 million.
Recently however, it is becoming apparent that terror campaigns were having the reverse effect on potential voters. There is a deepening and growing ground swell of resentment growing against Government perpetrators of the violence. People seem to have had enough. They want change.
With the emergence of the fact that there will be an opposition regardless of what intimidation takes place, the ZANU PF strategy has changed slightly. Hence Plan B:
Plan B
Our sources indicate that ZANU PF will tolerate a limited opposition for the following reasons:
a) The opposition could be allowed a token role in the Government but would be controlled via 'extra legal' means if necessary. A new government, which included Tsvangirai, would have obvious benefits.
b) Tsvangirai would be 'controlled' and the structures of the opposition would be slowly neutralized.
c) The 'Democratic' process would be seen to have taken place.
d) ZANU PF would gain credibility by tolerating an opposition party, and since Mugabe made their inclusion possible, there would no longer be any reason for investment and/or aid to be withheld.
e) Plans to nationalise more farms, mines, businesses and buildings would be put on hold temporarily, only to be brought out in the future as a threat when required. All affected persons would accept the delay in these plans with relief and Mugabe would get the credit for being so reasonable and moderate.
The change from Plan A to Plan B would entail the electoral fixing of a smaller number of constituencies, thereby making it harder to prove any wrongdoing. Our sources have told us that there is a small cell of 12 people preparing duplicate ballot boxes at this point in time. To understand the implication of this, we must look at some numbers.
The newly elected Parliament of Zimbabwe will consist of 150 seats. Of the 150 seats 30 or 20% of the seats are not contested but appointed by the President after the election. Ten of these seats are for Chiefs.
Just take a moment to reflect on this - 20% of the constitutional vote is pre-ordained by an obscure legal process sanctioned by an earlier parliament. The result of apathy and no opposition is certainly coming home to roost.
The courage of the Zimbabwe people should be viewed in this light - that despite the loaded dice, they still want to go ahead and vote.
Of the remaining 120 seats, we are told that between 70 - 80 are safe opposition seats, 20 - 30 are safe ZANU PF seats and the remainder are somewhere in between, with most tending towards the opposition. This means that ZANU PF have to influence the outcome in no more than 20 - 30 seats.
ZANU PF only needs to win 45 seats to prevent an opposition majority.
ZANU PF estimate that this target is attainable with the able assistance of their Fifth Brigade.
The task of the Fifth Brigade - armed with 20,000 AK 47's from Angola - will be to blitz and terrorise certain targeted areas in the 7 days before the election. Their strategy is to use fear to dissuade people from voting at all. New ballot boxes, pre-filled by the team of 12, will be swapped.
How and where and when is this to be done? We don't know yet, and hope to bring to you this information - but if we do not - stay alert to the possibilities of ZANU PF's election strategy.
This begs the obvious question: Which constituencies will be targeted? Our informants have listed the following constituencies as those under consideration as targets suitable for the above plan of last minute intimidation and ballot box substitution or introduction. While not conclusive, this list is a good guide:
1. Chegutu
2. Kadoma West
3. Makonde
4. Marondera East
5. Marondera West
6. Mudzi
7. Murewa South & North
8. Mtoko South & North
9. Wedza
10. Goromonzi
11. Chikomba
12. Bindura
13. Mazoe West & East
14. Shamva
15. Gweru Rural
16. Silobela
17. Gwanda North & South
18. Insiza
19. Beit Bridge
20. Umzingwane
21. Buhera South
A total of 25 areas - we will try and update as the more likely ones as more information comes to light.
Where does this leave us? Tempers are rising and Zimbabwe is very close to total chaos. If the election process is not seen to be fair and Mugabe wins by default and fraud, what ways remain to remove this tyrant? What is the next step?
All Zimbabweans must persevere and vote: an overwhelming desire for change will stop this tyranny.
To the International Observers who carry a heavy responsibility - be vigilant and do not legitimize a morally bankrupt leadership by accepting a flawed electoral process. Taking the easy route now will only lead to greater strife for the people of Zimbabwe in the days ahead.
Craig
Zimbabwe Crisis Mailing List
http://www.niner.net/zimcrisis
This is currently a manually administered mailing list. To subscribe or unsubscribe, send your request to DELETED. Personal requests for removal will be carried out immediately. Requests from governmental, political or press organisations (or their representatives) will be treated less favourably. The purpose of this list is not necessarily to redistribute published news reports. Rather, it is intended to distribute reports from or directly affecting people in Zimbabwe. If you have seen something before, I apologise. Hopefully that will not be a regular occurrence.
Brief list of helpful sites on the issue:
- Zimbabwe Crisis Mailing List Archives -- http://www.niner.net/zimcrisis
- Comprehensive news updates -- http://www.1freespace.com/beetee
- Offers of and requests for help for Zimbabweans -- http://pub9.ezboard.com/boffersofhelp
- Commercial Farmers' Union -- http://www.mweb.co.zw/cfu
- Movement for Democratic Change -- http://www.in2zw.com/mdc
- Zimbabwe Democracy Trust -- http://www.zimbabwedemocracytrust.org
- BSAP Pursuit of Zimbabwean Criminals -- http://www.bsaphq.f9.co.uk
